Haystaq has built national models predicting voters’ attitudes about 60+ different issues. These are based on large-sample phone surveys and are applied to all 200 million voters nationwide.

We’ve analyzed our national issue models and found that these are the top issue scores among the group of Bernie supporters less likely to turn out for Clinton this fall

• Support for marriage equality
• Support for marijuana legalization
• Environmental issues including support for renewable energy, opposition to fracking, and belief in human-caused climate change
• Pro-Choice
• Support for raising the minimum wage

They are also strongly against some of Trump’s signature policies such as a ban on Muslim immigration and a wall between the US and Mexico.

For a full list of issues important to this target group, contact info@haystaqdna.com.

See our full list of issue models.

You can’t turn on a tv without seeing someone talking about the weather and how it affects turnout.  Well, it turns out that as of 2:30 eastern, the weather is worse in counties that went for Romney in 2012.  Now you know.

HaystaqDNA has been conducting daily surveys in 35 states over the past two weeks.  This is part of a long-term research project to determine what survey questions are the best predictors of who will actually vote.  While we will have to wait awhile after the election to find out who actually voted, there are some interesting insights from the surveys thus far.

One of the questions we are testing asks voters if they feel more or less enthusiastic about voting compared to past elections.   Overall, 60% of the voters surveyed said that they felt more enthusiastic about this election than they did in past elections.  As one might expect, those who have strong opinions one way or another report being more enthusiastic about the election.  Conservatives and Republicans have lead Democrats and liberals in terms of enthusiasm, but the gap seems to have tightened as we got closer to Election Day.

Republicans have consistently held a lead in enthusiasm.  Democrats and independents were roughly tied two weeks ago, but, as we got closer to the election, Democratic enthusiasm increased while the independents remained steady.

A similar trend is apparent when we look at self-described ideology.  As of October 20^th, conservatives were more enthusiastic than either liberals or moderates.  Since then, liberal enthusiasm has increased while moderates have remained fairly steady.  People who support the Tea Party have shown a consistent lead in enthusiasm compared to those who are neutral or unfavorable toward the Tea Party.

In an election that has been described as a referendum on President Obama, enthusiasm is highest among those who disapprove of the President, followed closely by those who approve.  People who are undecided about the President are much less enthusiastic.  When we asked if voters viewed the election as being about the individual candidates or about sending a message about President Obama, those opposing Obama have had a consistent lead in enthusiasm up until Saturday, when their enthusiasm dropped, and the enthusiasm of people supporting the President or voting for specific candidates ticked up.

Details can be seen at http://viz.haystaqdna.com/2014-election-turnout-polls/

Interest in the race is high.  In a large-sample survey of 6,381 registered Mississippi voters conducted by HaystaqDNA over the weekend, 67% said that they will definitely vote in the runoff election.   As one would expect, self-reported turnout likelihood is highest among voters who have a declared preference in the runoff, with 90% of Cochran supporters and 94% of McDaniel supporters saying that they will definitely vote.

There is a stark ideological divide in the race, with self-identified Tea Party or conservative Republicans being much more likely to support McDaniel.

Ideology                                         McDaniel                  Cochran

Tea Party………………………………..87%                       13%

Conservative Republican……………..57%                        43%

Moderate Republican………………….25%                       75%

Other…………………………………….25%                        75%

Among all groups of self-identified Tea Party or Republican voters, more than 90% claim that they will definitely vote.   Among other voters, the  Democrats or independents who Cochran is reported to be courting, self-reported turnout likelihood is lower, but still almost 80%

Ideology                                        Definitely Vote

Tea Party……………………………….91%

Conservative Republican……………..93%

Moderate Republican…………………93%

Other……………………………………79%

Establishment Republicans have been beating back Tea Party challengers in recent primaries.  Both factions can make an electability argument.  Tea Party candidates rightly point out that their base is more enthusiastic than the rest of the electorate, while mainstream Republicans correctly argue that the Tea Party is turning off swing voters.

Both these arguments appear to be correct.  In a survey of Iowa voters that we conducted last night:

• 68% of strong Tea Party supporters said that they were more enthusiastic about voting than they were in previous years.
• This compares to 42% of the population at large, and only 35% of those strongly opposed to the Tea Party saying that they were more enthusiastic about voting .
• 90% of strong Tea Party supporters say that they will definitely vote, compared to 71% of voters at-large.
• Voters consistently over-state their likelihood to vote, but at least in terms of self-reported turnout likelihood, Tea Party supporters have a 19% advantage.

On the other hand, among voters who routinely spit their tickets, 54% say that they would be less likely to support the Republican candidate if that candidate had close ties to the Tea Party, while only 11% of the ticket splitters said that they were more likely to support a candidate associated with the Tea Party.

So how do you weigh these two factors?  Does the increased enthusiasm of Tea Party supporters make up for the swing voters they will turn off?  It’s hard to say, but it’s fun to do some back-of-the-envelope math.  The strong Tea Party supporters account for 18% of the electorate in Iowa.  Ticket splitters account for 26%.   According to this survey, strong Tea Party voters are 19% more likely than voters at large to say that they will definitely vote.  So this translates into a 3.4% bump that can be attributed to increased enthusiasm among Tea Party backers.  Of course many of those would vote for the Republican candidate whether or not that candidate had close ties to the Tea Party, so it is impossible to say how many of those 3.4% would be net new votes.

Ticket splitters make up 26% of the population, and 54% of them say that they are less likely to vote for a candidate associated with the Tea Party.  11% say that they are more likely to vote for a Tea Party candidate, so that translates into a net minus of 43% in support among the ticket splitters.  43% of a group that comprises 26% of the electorate gives us an 11% decrease in support for the Republican candidate if Republicans nominate someone with close ties to the Tea Party.

These two calculations aren’t apples to apples.  As noted earlier, self-reported turnout likelihood is notoriously unreliable, and as for the swing voters we don’t know how many of them would not have voted for the Republican candidate in any circumstances.  Still, the large difference between the two numbers does seem to indicate that Republican operatives should be hoping for wins by mainstream Republicans in tonight’s primaries.

Democrats can just breathe a sigh of relief that for once they aren’t the ones with the bitter inter-party fight.