Interest in the race is high. In a large-sample survey of 6,381 registered Mississippi voters conducted by HaystaqDNA over the weekend, 67% said that they will definitely vote in the runoff election. As one would expect, self-reported turnout likelihood is highest among voters who have a declared preference in the runoff, with 90% of Cochran supporters and 94% of McDaniel supporters saying that they will definitely vote.
There is a stark ideological divide in the race, with self-identified Tea Party or conservative Republicans being much more likely to support McDaniel.
Ideology McDaniel Cochran
Tea Party………………………………..87% 13%
Conservative Republican……………..57% 43%
Moderate Republican………………….25% 75%
Other…………………………………….25% 75%
Among all groups of self-identified Tea Party or Republican voters, more than 90% claim that they will definitely vote. Among other voters, the Democrats or independents who Cochran is reported to be courting, self-reported turnout likelihood is lower, but still almost 80%
Ideology Definitely Vote
Tea Party……………………………….91%
Conservative Republican……………..93%
Moderate Republican…………………93%
Other……………………………………79%