TX Special Election – A 30-Point Swing

Feb 25, 2026

—

Last month’s special election in Texas delivered one of the most striking results of the year. It saw Democrats flip State Senate District 9, a district that Donald Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. Taylor Rehmet won the seat by 15 points, marking a 32-point swing from the 2024 presidential results.

Three candidates ran in the November 4, 2025 election – Rehmet, Huffman and Wambsganss. Rehmet received 48% of the vote but fell short of the majority needed to win the seat outright. The two top-performing candidates, Rehmet and Wambsganss, advanced to the runoff election.

Special elections draw far fewer voters than presidential years, so the electorate skews toward the most motivated participants. A Haystaq analysis into this election breaks down the results and helps us understand how Rehmet was able to flip the district.

Rehmet ran on issues centered around economic stability and everyday affordability, issues that have further risen to the top of voters’ concerns amid persistent cost-of-living pressures and economic uncertainty. An analysis of early vote ballot returns and Haystaq issue scores indicate that affordability and economic anxiety were top of mind for the Democrats who turned out in the special election.

Of the 35,819 early vote ballots cast in SD-9, 20,863 were from Democrats and 14,956 were from Republicans. Our data show that Democrats who voted early had an average Economic Anxiety score that was 18 points higher than Republicans. Similarly, our Economic Despondency score, which asks, “How close are you to where you thought you would be at this stage of your life?” was nearly 17 points higher among Democratic early voters. Together, these metrics help illustrate the economic concerns that motivated these early voters to turn out.

By monitoring issues like economic anxiety and affordability, we can see directly how voters are processing the current economic climate. Haystaq’s Economic anxiety score asks voters their confidence in the broader economy as well as their place in it. When we understand voters’ economic circumstances and outlook, we gain a clearer picture of what motivates their political decisions, including whether they turn out to vote.

Now Hiring

Data Analysts (Entry-Level)

Haystaq is hiring multiple Data Analysts for an entry-level position starting in June. Current undergraduate seniors are encouraged to apply. This is a fully remote role. While prior political or analyst experience is a plus, it is not required. The position includes training to provide the necessary background in political modeling.
Click here to view the full job description.

Have questions or want to talk strategy?

Call us at 202-548-2562

We’d love to help you put these insights to work.

Track the evolving political landscape with insights delivered straight to your inbox