Trump Indictment Score

May 31, 2024

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Swing State Voters: Biden’s Potential Advantage

With the Trump conviction, Haystaq has been exploring how the verdict could impact voters in swing states, and even create openings for Biden in states he lost in 2020 but might be able to pick up in 2024. Haystaq surveyed voters nationwide asking how the Trump indictments would impact their vote, and we built models that have been applied to every voter nationwide predicting how likely it is that the indictments make them less likely to vote for Trump.

Obviously, there is a sharp partisan divide in the survey responses, but a significant number of Republican voters did say that the indictments made them less likely to support Trump. Even though this represents a minority of Republican voters, it is a significant enough number to potentially make the difference in what is expected to be an extremely close election.

In swing states like WI, MI, PA, AZ and GA, even a shift of a few thousand votes could change the outcome of the election. Beyond those swing states, there are enough Republicans who are troubled by the Trump indictments that states like NC and FL could be put into play.

Our Trump Indictment Score is a metric that analyzes voter sentiment in response to the legal challenges faced by former President Donald Trump. Contrary to what you may have heard, our data suggests that this group is sizable enough to sway the election in some swing states. In the case of Florida, Trump won by approximately 371,686 votes.

In these two examples, we highlight Republican voters who are less likely to support former President Trump this November following a conviction. In Florida we can select 381,825 Republicans who are less likely to support Trump following a guilty verdict. In North Carolina that totals 185,841 far exceeding the margin of victory Trump held in 2020 of 74,481.

Strategically targeting and peeling off these crucial voters could provide a path to victory in North Carolina, Florida and other crucial swing states. These scores in conjunction with our microtargeting and modeling campaign strategies, provide invaluable insights that can help tailor our outreach efforts effectively. Because these scores are appended to each states’ voterfiles, it is possible to easily select and communicate with these voters via mail, telephone, email, text, digital or broadcast television.