As we enter Election Day 2024, Haystaq compiled various lists of presidential bellwether counties to watch for as results come in. Bellwether counties are counties that closely mirror the national electoral landscape across many elections. While they’re not statistically determinative by any means, they’re interesting to watch during Election Night to get hints on how the night’s results are heading.
Bellwethers, collectively, can also tell the story of American politics over time. For instance, as America becomes increasingly politically polarized, the number of bellwethers have decreased:18/19 bellwether counties that voted for the Electoral College (EC) winner from 1980-2016 backed Trump in 2020 — who lost.
The single county that has voted for the EC winner every election since 1980 is Clallam County, WA — unfortunately one of the last counties to report results.
Here are the key bellwether counties that will report results earlier to track in the early hours of Election Night:
Beyond the early result reporters, we identified other bellwether counties further west
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