2024 Early Voting Comparison 2

Oct 30, 2024

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With less than a week to go before Election Day, HaystaqDNA is continuously analyzing early vote data. Mirroring public polling, the early vote data show an incredibly close race. These votes will not be counted until Election Day, but we are able to look at the demographics, party registration and modeled candidate support among those who have already turned in their ballots.

Key Takeaways

Early vote and vote by mail are down compared to 2020 when people turned to vote by mail due to COVID, but turnout is higher than in pre-COVID elections.
Trump is no longer telling his supporters not to vote by mail, so there is no longer a large Democratic advantage among those who have voted early. We can assume that this also means that there will probably not be a Republican advantage in at-the-polls Election Day voting.
Overall campaigns are essentially tied in terms of turning out infrequent voters.
Harris appears to have an early vote advantage in the “Blue Wall” states of MI and PA while Trump has an advantage in GA and WI.
In a race this close, the ground game and GOTV efforts could easily make the difference. Campaigns should take advantage of early vote return data in order to focus their resources on voters who have not yet returned their ballots.

The data reveal that this election cycle is shaping up to be highly competitive, with many key races showing a narrow margin between candidates. According to national totals from L2’s Early Voter Dashboard, a substantial portion of the early votes cast have come from individuals aged 65 and older, indicating strong engagement among older voters. In contrast, participation among those aged 18-49 remains well below their total voter numbers. Looking at swing states where younger voters have lower turnout, states like Arizona and Ohio show a lower turnout than the national average.

In this crucial last week, it’s essential to reach out to undecided or yet-to-vote individuals. By combining the insights from L2’s Early Voter Dashboard with HaystaqDNA’s advanced scoring and modeling tools, you can ensure your outreach hits the mark. Let us help you tailor your messaging to maximize your impact in the final days. Contact us at info@haystaqnda.com or reply to this email to discuss tailored outreach strategies.

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