Government Shutdown and Virginia Early Vote

Oct 23, 2025

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As we enter day 23 of the government shutdown, Haystaq is taking a closer look at how potential layoffs of federal government workers could impact the upcoming Virginia gubernatorial election. With the election fast approaching, we analyzed the current early vote and compared it to 2021 figures to see what trends and potential voter shifts are emerging as Election Day approaches. We also examined voting patterns among federal employees to better understand how the ongoing shutdown may be influencing turnout within the government workforce, one of the groups most directly affected by the pause in operations. While federal workers are not directly identified on the voterfile, we were able to identify roughly 8,000 voters in Virginia who work for a federal government agency or department. This is a small fraction of the total federal workforce in Virginia, but it does give us some interesting insights.

In 2021, with 15 days before the election, only 6% of Virginians had already cast their ballot. This year, 15 days before the 2025 election, 11% of Virginia residents have already cast their ballots, a large increase from this point in 2021. Looking at our sample of federal employees and their voting rate now compared to 2021. We found that while 11% had voted by now in 2021, that number rose to 15% in 2025. The graph below shows the early vote rate in 2021 and 2025 for both average Virginians and federal employees.

Even accounting for the roughly 6% of 2021 voters who have moved or died and are no longer on the voterfile, turnout 15 days before the election is dramatically higher than it was at the same point in 2021. This raises the question of whether new voters have been energized to register and vote, or if the same pool of voters are casting their ballots earlier. 73% of those who have returned their ballots in 2025 did so earlier than they did in 2021. Among known federal government employees 75% have returned their ballots earlier.

What may have led to this increase in early vote numbers? With roughly 900,000 federal employees furloughed, the ongoing shutdown has disrupted daily life across Virginia and beyond, potentially motivating more voters to cast their ballots early. Prior to the current shutdown and furloughs, there were DOGE cuts. Haystaq conducted surveys asking about DOGE earlier this year and built a model predicting voter sentiment toward the layoffs driven by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.

The score is now available on our voter file for more than 218 million registered voters nationwide. The average DOGE opposition score in Virginia is 49.7. Among earlier voters – those who returned their ballots earlier this year than they did in 2021 – the average is 63%. Among federal workers who have cast their ballots, that number jumps to 75%.

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