Haystaq - Abortion Impact on State Legislatures 10/11/2022

Expanding Democrat’s Holdings in State Legislatures by Leveraging Abortion

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This white paper takes advantage of Haystaq’s national issue scores to identify expansion targets for the Democratic Party in state legislative elections.^[1] Based on feedback we have received, we focused on the following chambers in bold that we believe are pick up opportunities when using abortion related messaging. This analysis considers all seats being contested by the two major parties, excluding only those rated as “Solid D” by CNalysis (whose seat ratings this paper adopts).

Expansion Targets 2022^[2]	Protects 2022 Cycle	Long-term Opportunities
Michigan House	Nevada House, and Senate	Georgia House only
Pennsylvania House	Maine Senate	North Carolina House
Arizona Senate	Minnesota House	North Carolina Senate
Michigan Senate

The table below briefly summarizes the legal status of abortion in the targeted states and public option in the state overall. It is quite possible that abortion may prove to be a more salient issue in states where the current abortion policy is at odds with the opinion of the majority of voters.

State	Legal	Constitutional Protection	Legislative Control	% supporting Abortion Statewide	Abortion Rights Under Threat
Arizona	No (pending court challenges)	No	GOP	56%	Yes
Pennsylvania	Yes	No	GOP	56%	Yes^[3]
Minnesota	Yes	Yes (non-explicit)	Split	54%	No
Michigan	Yes (pending court action)	No	GOP	55%	No
Nevada	Yes	Yes	Dem	63%	No
Maine	Yes	No	Dem	62%	No
North Carolina	Yes (viability)	No	GOP	49%	Yes
Georgia	Yes (6-weeks)	No	GOP	49%	Yes
Texas	No	No	GOP	46%	Yes

The key finding is, given that the vast majority of Americans disapprove of the overturning of Roe versus Wade, there are several dozen GOP held state legislative seats with pro-choice majorities and where Haystaq’s data can be used to id and target pro-choice voters, and there are many more seats where vulnerable Democrats can use the abortion issue to bolster their electoral position. If Democrats succeed in unifying the pro-choice vote, the party could gain control over both houses of the Michigan legislature along with the Pennsylvania House and the Arizona Senate. Of these legislative chambers, the Michigan Senate will be the easiest to flip, followed by the PA House and AZ Senate.^[4] Evidence from field testing and from recent special elections shows that this issue indeed moves vote choice.

The tables below highlight seats in each legislative chamber where abortion related messaging can make a difference with expansion opportunity seats in bold and districts ranked by the salience of the abortion issue. The race ratings key below is taken from CNalysis. For each chamber, the number of seats currently held by the GOP which have Pro Choice majorities is noted, and the information is underlined when the number of seats is enough to flip control of the chamber to the Democrats.

Race Ratings Key

Solid R

Very Likely R

Likely R

Lean R

Tilt R

Tossup

Tilt D

Lean D

Likely D

Very Likely D

Expansion Targets

MI Senate (Chamber Rating: toss-up)

3 flips possible
3 seats need for control

District With CN Analysis Rating	Current Hold	Reg Voters	Likely Voters	Count Pro Choice	Count Pro Choice Likely Voters	Percent Pro Choice
13	D	203,108	96,391	124,993	59,925	62.2%
21	R	198,356	72,090	124,412	42,377	58.8%
4	D	209,569	71,730	121,671	41,947	58.5%
14	R	201,075	82,691	109,008	47,801	57.8%
28	R	181,207	74,818	104,858	42,582	56.9%
9	D	185,843	75,889	102,357	40,839	53.8%
11	D	198,566	64,910	108,308	33,591	51.8%

PA House (Chamber Rating likely R)

15 flips identified
12 seats needed for control

District With CN Analysis Rating	Current Hold	Reg Voters	Likely Voters	Count Pro Choice	Count Pro Choice Likely Voters	Percent Pro Choice
172	D	33,927	10,996	22,451	7,861	71.5%
45	D	43,874	15,931	27,537	10,751	67.5%
121	D	31,109	9,160	19,974	6,054	66.1%
25	D	42,922	15,281	25,405	9,733	63.7%
16	D	40,813	14,148	21,510	8,880	62.8%
118	D	42,605	17,678	23,913	11,075	62.6%
33	R	42,033	17,389	22,957	10,729	61.7%
2	D	40,142	15,108	22,620	9,219	61.0%
151	R	45,408	20,190	25,941	12,161	60.2%
61	D	45,892	22,495	25,552	12,769	56.8%
29	R	49,874	24,003	26,528	13,555	56.5%
137	R	44,561	15,873	23,385	8,956	56.4%
189	R	37,397	8,393	20,618	4,691	55.9%
53	D	40,307	14,872	22,866	8,240	55.4%
115	D	37,081	8,163	20,666	4,517	55.3%
39	R	44,855	17,716	21,461	9,763	55.1%
146	D	41,054	12,209	22,100	6,662	54.6%
30	R	44,426	20,948	22,894	11,429	54.6%
168	R	42,387	19,484	22,816	10,466	53.7%
3	D	44,772	19,822	22,179	10,629	53.6%
26	R	42,572	16,872	22,166	9,037	53.6%
142	R	43,865	17,959	22,188	9,544	53.1%
18	R	39,719	12,975	22,449	6,835	52.7%
51	R	38,160	12,060	16,212	6,323	52.4%
144	R	45,006	18,380	22,831	9,625	52.4%
74	D	37,401	10,581	18,538	5,449	51.5%
82	R	37,986	13,096	20,020	6,678	51.0%
120	R	39,922	15,036	18,435	7,586	50.5%

AZ Senate (Chamber Rating: Very Likely R)

3 flips possible
2 seats needed for control

District With CN Analysis Rating	Current Hold	Reg Voters	Likely Voters	Count Pro Choice	Count Pro Choice Likely Voters	Percent Pro Choice
11	R	112,243	21,923	79,713	16,064	73.3%
18	D	158,642	75,347	111,147	48,576	64.5%
8	R	128,059	36,355	87,767	21,919	60.3%
23	R	120,100	24,701	68,004	12,805	51.8%

MI House (Chamber Rating: lean R)

8 flips possible
3 seats needed to gain control

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District With CN Analysis Rating	Current Hold	Reg Voters	Likely Voters	Count Pro Choice	Count Pro Choice Likely Voters	Percent Pro Choice
20	D	74,703	33,317	44,633	21,164	63.5%
2	D	65,447	18,182	40,242	10,875	59.8%
21	D	58,957	28,645	36,086	16,881	58.9%
40	D	67,752	30,234	41,519	17,688	58.5%
69	D	72,560	22,945	41,253	13,418	58.5%
22	D	74,522	38,574	42,596	21,876	56.7%
73	R	55,292	23,075	31,876	13,015	56.4%
80	R	66,445	27,813	38,367	15,675	56.4%
81	R	68,707	30,413	38,364	16,737	55.0%
27	D	71,170	27,671	38,741	15,117	54.6%
31	D	72,470	25,464	38,074	13,908	54.6%
55	D	66,620	31,869	38,131	17,284	54.2%
28	D	69,534	22,056	36,538	11,800	53.5%
83	R	59,140	14,944	36,566	7,973	53.4%
54	D	69,211	32,757	40,086	17,424	53.2%
84	R	66,713	23,496	38,486	12,497	53.2%
57	R	63,492	19,714	31,956	10,376	52.6%
58	R	65,522	21,407	34,247	11,175	52.2%
48	R	73,170	35,774	36,904	18,598	52.0%
61	D	71,308	24,653	38,596	12,660	51.4%
76	D	70,433	29,252	37,021	14,962	51.1%
68	D	73,016	26,474	39,197	13,513	51.0%

Protects

NV House (Chamber Rating: Lean D)

1 flip possible

District With CN Analysis Rating	Current Hold	Reg Voters	Likely Voters	Count Pro Choice	Count Pro Choice Likely Voters	Percent Pro Choice
42	D	44,553	12,768	25,434	7,464	58.5%
8	D	45,109	11,885	24,845	6,932	58.3%
1	D	51,497	17,487	28,641	10,081	57.6%
16	D	44,548	11,222	26,180	6,403	57.1%
9	D	45,980	14,436	24,380	7,992	55.4%
34	D	46,428	14,224	26,023	7,855	55.2%
41	D	49,126	15,291	26,150	8,440	55.2%
35	D	49,196	15,937	25,225	8,609	54.0%
5	D	46,656	15,138	25,280	8,115	53.6%
29	D	47,750	15,236	25,112	8,103	53.2%
3	D	43,360	12,115	24,085	6,425	53.0%
25	R	49,102	25,773	25,767	13,467	52.3%
21	D	49,808	18,523	25,623	9,670	52.2%
12	D	43,998	13,569	24,805	6,950	51.2%

NV Senate (Chamber Rating: Very Likely D)

0 flips possible
None of the districts up for election this cycle have a majority of voters that are pro-choice, the below districts are analyzed based on registered rather than likely voters

District With CN Analysis Rating	Current Hold	Reg Voters	Count Pro Choice	Percent Pro Choice
8	D	96,819	48,480	50%
9	D	90,550	49,824	55%
12	R	98,969	51,790	52.3%

ME Senate (Chamber Rating: Toss-Up)

0 flips possible
GOP needs nine seats to gain control

District With CN Analysis Rating	Current Hold	Reg Voters	Likely Voters	Count Pro Choice	Count Pro Choice Likely Voters	Percent Pro Choice
21	D	25,931	7,124	17,802	4,036	56.7%
32	D	26,344	8,889	14,976	4,884	54.9%
31	D	28,733	9,933	15,916	5,400	54.4%
34	D	31,246	12,996	15,178	6,576	50.6%

MN House (Tilt R)

0 flips possible
GOP needs four seats to gain control

District With CN Analysis Rating	Current Hold	Reg Voters	Likely Voters	Count Pro Choice	Count Pro Choice Likely Voters	Percent Pro Choice
53B	D	25,309	7,593	16,415	4,114	54.2%

Long Term Opportunities

NC House (Chamber Rating: Very Likely R)

8 flips possible
18 seats needed for control

District With CN Analysis Rating	Current Hold	Reg Voters	Likely Voters	Count Pro Choice	Count Pro Choice Likely Voters	Percent Pro Choice
50	D	59,865	27,811	38,018	19,911	71.6%
54	D	61,270	30,619	38,775	21,297	69.6%
36	D	61,463	25,334	39,993	17,206	67.9%
40	D	65,822	31,750	41,228	20,272	63.8%
2	R	59,451	25,007	34,722	15,938	63.7%
115	D	60,045	24,852	35,735	15,817	63.6%
47	D	47,726	11,876	25,628	7,539	63.5%
35	D	60,762	24,066	37,173	15,226	63.3%
48	D	48,841	13,585	28,474	8,535	62.8%
45	R	47,078	12,215	28,417	7,652	62.6%
105	D	56,324	20,484	35,701	12,659	61.8%
98	R	60,543	22,631	34,947	13,450	59.4%
104	D	59,160	27,187	35,184	16,127	59.3%
9	D	55,901	19,298	32,233	11,185	58.0%
103	D	60,482	26,478	35,050	15,210	57.4%
62	R	64,967	28,217	38,258	16,097	57.0%
32	D	52,567	17,380	29,592	9,815	56.5%
37	R	61,579	23,314	33,283	12,959	55.6%
73	R	51,777	17,394	27,506	9,460	54.4%
43	R	52,756	16,831	27,273	8,767	52.1%
74	R	62,114	26,190	32,873	13,619	52.0%
20	R	62,597	24,229	30,376	12,350	51.0%
24	D	54,889	18,154	28,798	9,097	50.1%

NC Senate (Chamber Rating: Very Likely R)

2 flips possible
4 seats need for control

District With CN Analysis Rating	Current Hold	Reg Voters	Likely Voters	Count Pro Choice	Count Pro Choice Likely Voters	Percent Pro Choice
17	D	136,972	53,338	81,240	32,867	61.6%
24	R	115,536	30,281	63,238	18,564	61.3%
18	D	135,437	53,694	79,153	32,830	61.1%
19	D	128,229	37,142	76,536	22,350	60.2%
42	R	143,920	59,588	87,923	35,736	60.0%
3	D	136,151	47,483	69,517	24,703	52.0%

GA House (Chamber Rating: Very Likely R)

1 flip possible
14 seats needed for control

District With CN Analysis Rating	Current Hold	Reg Voters	Likely Voters	Count Pro Choice	Count Pro Choice Likely Voters	Percent Pro Choice
54	D	38,541	14,555	28,391	9,010	61.9%
106	D	39,923	15,464	22,184	8,580	55.5%
50	D	36,503	13,086	23,946	7,105	54.3%
101	D	38,378	12,387	21,243	6,550	52.9%
35	R	37,535	11,982	19,972	6,280	52.4%
154	D	40,566	14,684	25,057	7,670	52.2%
105	D	38,221	12,695	20,704	6,582	51.8%

TX House (Chamber Rating: Very Likely R)

2 flips possible
10 seats needed for control

District With CN Analysis Rating	Current Hold	Reg Voters	Likely Voters	Count Pro Choice	Count Pro Choice Likely Voters	Percent Pro Choice
35	D	72,311.00	12,898.00	62,774.00	10,016.00	77.7%
41	D	97,046.00	24,425.00	81,649.00	17,763.00	72.7%
74	D	109,198.00	25,412.00	87,426.00	17,676.00	69.6%
47	D	129,733.00	70,610.00	83,307.00	43,880.00	62.1%
135	D	99,870.00	25,133.00	66,184.00	15,587.00	62.0%
37	D	96,832.00	23,604.00	75,297.00	14,532.00	61.6%
148	D	89,635.00	22,825.00	59,411.00	13,594.00	59.6%
45	D	121,123.00	43,602.00	74,356.00	24,199.00	55.5%
105	D	75,258.00	20,157.00	50,794.00	11,005.00	54.6%
34	D	103,130.00	24,252.00	46,370.00	12,661.00	52.2%
118	R	113,023.00	29,691.00	70,522.00	15,032.00	50.6%
31	R	111,130.00	35,801.00	71,456.00	18,112.00	50.6%

Works Cited

“Abortion in Nevada.” Wikipedia, 3 Aug. 2022, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Nevada#History. Accessed 9 Aug. 2022.

“Arizona Senate.” Wikipedia, 25 July 2022, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona_Senate. Accessed 9 Aug. 2022.

“Arizona State Legislative.” Projects.cnalysis.com, projects.cnalysis.com/21-22/state-legislative/arizona. Accessed 9 Aug. 2022.

Center for Reproductive Rights. “Abortion Laws by State.” Center for Reproductive Rights, reproductiverights.org/maps/abortion-laws-by-state/.

Cohn, Nate. “Do Americans Support Abortion Rights? Depends on the State.” The New York Times, 4 May 2022, www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/upshot/polling-abortion-states.html.

“Georgia House of Representatives.” Wikipedia, 16 June 2022, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_House_of_Representatives. Accessed 16 Aug. 2022.

“Maine State Legislative.” Projects.cnalysis.com, projects.cnalysis.com/21-22/state-legislative/maine. Accessed 9 Aug. 2022.

“Michigan Senate.” Wikipedia, 18 May 2022, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_Senate. Accessed 9 Aug. 2022.

“Minnesota House of Representatives.” Wikipedia, 24 Mar. 2022, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_House_of_Representatives. Accessed 9 Aug. 2022.

“Minnesota State Legislative.” Projects.cnalysis.com, projects.cnalysis.com/21-22/state-legislative/minnesota. Accessed 9 Aug. 2022.

“Nevada Assembly.” Wikipedia, 7 June 2021, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_Assembly.

“Nevada State Legislative.” Projects.cnalysis.com, projects.cnalysis.com/21-22/state-legislative/nevada. Accessed 9 Aug. 2022.

“North Carolina House of Representatives.” Wikipedia, 1 Aug. 2022, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina_House_of_Representatives. Accessed 16 Aug. 2022.

“North Carolina Senate.” Wikipedia, 8 Oct. 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina_Senate.

“North Carolina State Legislative.” Projects.cnalysis.com, projects.cnalysis.com/21-22/state-legislative/north-carolina. Accessed 16 Aug. 2022.

“Pennsylvania House of Representatives.” Wikipedia, 30 July 2022, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives. Accessed 9 Aug. 2022.

“Pennsylvania State Legislative.” Projects.cnalysis.com, projects.cnalysis.com/21-22/state-legislative/pennsylvania. Accessed 9 Aug. 2022.

Wikipedia Contributors. “Michigan House of Representatives.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 31 Oct. 2019, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_House_of_Representatives. Accessed 7 Nov. 2019.

—. “Texas House of Representatives.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 25 Nov. 2019, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_House_of_Representatives.

[1] In Wyoming and Oklahoma Democrats are not contesting enough seats to take control of the legislature. In West Virginia, the Dakotas, Tenensee, Kentucky, Indiana, and Utah not enough Democratic candidates filed to take control of the upper houses of the legislature. In Massachusetts the GOP is not contesting either house of the legislature and in California the GOP is not contesting the state senate.

[2] The AZ house was not analyzed because CNalysis does not rate these races.

[3] Both houses of the PA leg. are controlled by anti-abortion forces and GOP gubernational nominee Doug Mastriano supports a total ban on abortion

[4] The Michigan house will be difficult to flip because the Dems need to play defense in several challenging seats.

Haystaq – Abortion Impact on State Legislatures 10/11/2022

Haystaq DNA

October 11, 2022