{"id":1071,"date":"2022-10-11T15:11:08","date_gmt":"2022-10-11T19:11:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/haystaqdna.com\/staging\/8843\/?p=1071"},"modified":"2024-12-16T09:28:56","modified_gmt":"2024-12-16T14:28:56","slug":"haystaq-abortion-impact-state-legislatures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/haystaqdna.com\/staging\/8843\/haystaq-abortion-impact-state-legislatures\/","title":{"rendered":"Haystaq – Abortion Impact on State Legislatures"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Expanding Democrat\u2019s Holdings in State Legislatures by Leveraging Abortion<\/span><\/h2>\n

Download a PDF of this Report<\/a><\/h4>\n

This white paper takes advantage of Haystaq\u2019s <\/span>national issue scores<\/a><\/span>\u00a0to identify expansion targets for the D<\/span>emocratic Party<\/span>\u00a0in state legislative elections.<\/span>[1]<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0<\/span>Based on feedback we have received, we focused on the following chambers in bold that we believe are pick up opportunities when using abortion related messaging.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>This analysis considers all seats being contested by the two major parties, excluding only those rated as \u201cSolid D\u201d by CNalysis (whose seat ratings this paper adopts).<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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Expansion Targets 2022<\/span><\/strong>[2]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Protects 2022 Cycle<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Long-term Opportunities<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Michigan House<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Nevada House, and Senate<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Georgia House only<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Pennsylvania House <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Maine Senate<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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North Carolina House <\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Arizona Senate<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Minnesota House <\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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North Carolina Senate<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Michigan Senate<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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The table below briefly summarizes the legal status of abortion in the targeted states and public option in the state overall. It is quite possible that abortion may prove to be a more salient issue in states where the current abortion policy is at odds with the opinion of the majority of voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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State<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Legal<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Constitutional Protection<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Legislative Control<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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% supporting Abortion Statewide<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Ab<\/span>ortion Rights Under Threat<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Arizona<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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No<\/span>\u00a0(pending court challenges)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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No<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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GOP<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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56%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Yes<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Pennsylvania<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Yes<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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No<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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GOP<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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56%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Yes<\/span>[3]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Minnesota<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Yes<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Yes (non-explicit)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Split<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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54%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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No<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Michigan<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Yes (pending court action)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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No<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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GOP<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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55%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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No<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Nevada<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Yes<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Yes<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Dem<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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63%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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No<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Maine<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Yes<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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No<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Dem<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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62%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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No<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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North Carolina<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Yes (viability)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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No<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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GOP<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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49%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Yes<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Georgia<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Yes (6-weeks)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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No<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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GOP<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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49%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Yes<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Texas<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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No<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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No<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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GOP<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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46%<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Yes<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The key finding is, given that the vast majority of Americans disapprove of the overturning of <\/span>Roe versus Wade,<\/span>\u00a0there are several dozen GOP held state legislative seats with pro-choice majorities and where Haystaq\u2019s data can be used to id and target pro-choice voters, and there are many more seats where vulnerable <\/span>De<\/span>mocrats can use the abortion issue to bolster their electoral position.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>If <\/span>De<\/span>mocrats succeed in <\/span>unifying the pro-choice vote<\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0the party could gain control over both houses of the Michigan legislature along with the Pennsylvania House and the Arizona Senate. Of these legislative chambers, the <\/span>Michigan Senate will be the easiest to flip, followed by the PA House and AZ Senate.<\/span>[4]<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0Evidence from field testing and from recent special elections shows that this issue indeed moves vote choice. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The tables below highlight seats in each legislative chamber where abortion related messaging can make a difference with expansion opportunity seats in <\/span>bold<\/span>\u00a0and districts ranked by the salience of the abortion issue. The race ratings key below is taken from CNalysis. For each chamber, the number of seats currently held by the GOP which have Pro Choice majorities is noted, and the information is underlined when the number of seats is enough to flip control of the chamber to the Democrats.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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Race Ratings <\/span>Key<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Solid R<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Very Likely R<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Likely R<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Lean R<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Tilt R<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Tossup<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Tilt D<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Lean D<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Likely D<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Very Likely \u00a0D<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Expansion Targets<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

MI Senate (Chamber Rating: <\/span>toss-up<\/span>)<\/span><\/p>\n