{"id":1020,"date":"2022-10-03T14:52:10","date_gmt":"2022-10-03T18:52:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/haystaqdna.com\/staging\/8843\/?p=1020"},"modified":"2024-12-16T09:29:02","modified_gmt":"2024-12-16T14:29:02","slug":"report-racial-bloc-voting-analysis-state-montana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/haystaqdna.com\/staging\/8843\/report-racial-bloc-voting-analysis-state-montana\/","title":{"rendered":"Report on Racial Bloc Voting Analysis for the State of Montana"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Report on Racial Bloc Voting Analysis for the\u00a0<\/b>State of Montana<\/b><\/h2>\n

Prepared for:\u00a0<\/b><\/h3>\n

The Montana\u00a0 Districting and\u00a0<\/b>Apportionment Commission<\/b><\/h3>\n

Download a PDF of this Report<\/a><\/span><\/h4>\n

May 6, 2022<\/span><\/p>

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Synopsis<\/span><\/h2>

Analysis of the State of Montana\u2019s election results going back to 2014 shows evidence of racial bloc voting (RBV) in the five regions solicited by the Montana Districting and Apportionment Commission. This analysis used general and party primary elections for ten races going back to 2014. We show the results of Homogeneous Precinct Analysis, Bivariate Regression Analysis, and Ecological Inference Analysis to support these findings. All analyses were run using two definitions of American Indian, “American Indian Any” and “American Indian Alone”, using Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) data. In the following report, we will walk you through our findings.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Introduction<\/span><\/h2>

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Figure 1: Map of the 5 regions for analysis defined by the MT Redistricting and Apportionment Commission<\/span><\/i><\/p>

Since 2004, Montana\u2019s legislative maps have included 6 majority-minority House Districts (out of 100 districts total) and 3 majority-minority Senate Districts (out of 50 districts total).\u00a0 These majority-minority House and Senate Districts cover all or part of 7 reservations in Montana, which guided our RBV analysis.\u00a0 In addition to the three regions spelled out below that surround current majority-minority legislative districts, the Montana Districting and Apportionment Commission has requested that Haystaq DNA analyze the two major cities with the highest American Indian populations, Great Falls and Billings.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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As of the 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates released by the U.S. Census, Montana has a citizen voting age population statewide that is 6.53% “American Indian Alone” and 8.09% “Any Part American Indian.” For minority demographic groups, it was requested that HaystaqDNA look at citizen voting age populations for \u201cAny Part American Indian,\u201d as well as \u201cAmerican Indian Alone\u201d to determine if racially polarized voting exists and to what extent amongst those two categories.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Regions<\/span><\/h3>

HaystaqDNA performed the analysis on five regions in the State of Montana to determine if there was RBV in past elections.\u00a0 Our analysis includes all precincts within 17 counties, broken down into the following five regions at the request of the Redistricting Commission.\u00a0 While regions 1 through 3 were selected because they encompass current majority-minority House and Senate Districts, it was proposed that our analysis include all precincts within the 17 counties listed below to ensure coverage of precincts both on and off reservation lands and both within and outside of current majority-minority legislative districts.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Region 1 – Blackfeet & Flathead Reservations (SD 8)<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Reservation<\/b><\/td>\nSenate District<\/b><\/td>\n House District<\/b><\/td>\n County\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Blackfeet\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nSD 8<\/span><\/td>\nHDs 15 & 16<\/span><\/td>\nGlacier Co. Precincts\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Blackfeet\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nSD 8<\/span><\/td>\nHD 15<\/span><\/td>\nPondera Co. Precincts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Flathead\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nSD 8<\/span><\/td>\nHD 15<\/span><\/td>\nLake Co. Precincts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Flathead\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\nSanders Co. Precincts\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>

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\u00a0<\/span>Region 2 – Rocky Boy\u2019s, Fort Belknap, & Fort Peck Reservations (SD 16)\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Reservation<\/b><\/td>\nSenate District\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n House District<\/b><\/td>\nCounty<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rocky Boy\u2019s<\/span><\/td>\nSD 16<\/span><\/td>\nHD 32<\/span><\/td>\nHill Co. Precincts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rocky Boy\u2019s<\/span><\/td>\nSD 16<\/span><\/td>\nHD 32<\/span><\/td>\nChouteau Co. Precincts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fort Belknap<\/span><\/td>\nSD 16<\/span><\/td>\nHD 32<\/span><\/td>\nBlaine Co. Precincts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fort Belknap<\/span><\/td>\nSD 16<\/span><\/td>\nHD 32<\/span><\/td>\nPhillips Co. Precincts\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fort Peck<\/span><\/td>\nSD 16<\/span><\/td>\nHD 31<\/span><\/td>\nRoosevelt Co. Precincts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fort Peck<\/span><\/td>\nSD 16<\/span><\/td>\nHD 31<\/span><\/td>\nValley Co. Precincts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fort Peck<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\nDaniels Co. Precincts\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fort Peck<\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\nSheridan Co. Precincts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>

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Region 3 – Crow & Northern Cheyenne Reservations (SD 21)<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Reservation<\/b><\/td>\nSenate District<\/b><\/td>\n House District\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\nCounty<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Crow<\/span><\/td>\nSD 21<\/span><\/td>\nHDs 41 & 42\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nBig Horn Co. Precincts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Crow<\/span><\/td>\nSD 21<\/span><\/td>\nHD 42\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nYellowstone Co. Precincts 42.1 and\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

42.2 only (remaining Yellowstone Co.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Precincts part of Billings Region)\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Crow<\/span><\/td>\nSD 21<\/span><\/td>\nHD 41<\/span><\/td>\nRosebud Co. Precincts\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nSD 21<\/span><\/td>\nHD 41<\/span><\/td>\nPowder River Co. Precincts\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>

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Region 4 – City of Billings <\/b>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
Reservation<\/b><\/td>\nSenate District<\/b><\/td>\n House District\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\nCounty<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\nYellowstone County Precincts (excluding Precincts 42.1 and 42.2 which are included in a majority-minority House and Senate District and part of Region 3)\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>

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Region 5 – City of Great Falls (Little Shell)\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
Reservation<\/b><\/td>\nSenate District<\/b><\/td>\n House District\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\nCounty<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\nCascade County Precincts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Elections<\/span><\/h3>

The following elections were analyzed using Ecological Inference,\u00a0 Homogeneous Precinct Analysis and Bivariate Regression Analysis in each of the 5 regions. There were 10 races for analysis total, with 4 from each presidential election cycle and 1 from each midterm between 2014 and 2020. For each of the races listed below, we analyzed the election results from the General, Democratic Primary, and Republican Primary elections where applicable.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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  1. 2014 U.S. Senate\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. 2016 President\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. 2016 Congressional\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. 2016 Governor\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  5. 2016 Attorney General\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  6. 2018 U.S. Senate\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  7. 2020 President\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  8. 2020 U.S. Senate\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  9. 2020 Attorney General\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  10. 2020 Auditor\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Data<\/span><\/h2>\n

    Election Results & Precinct Shapefiles<\/span><\/h3>

    Our process began with creating precinct shapefiles joined to election results for each year of elections, to reflect precinct geographies in place at the time of the election. We obtained the shapefile of Montana Voting Precincts from the <\/span>Montana State Library Services<\/span><\/a> repository. A shapefile is a geospatial vector data format for geographic information system (GIS) software. We use these shapefiles to spatially analyze the election results in comparison with population data. We obtained historical election results at the precinct level from the <\/span>Montana Secretary of State<\/span><\/a> website. Using the information below, we manually consolidated election results or precinct geographies.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

    Four of the 17 counties included in the region of study have had a precinct change between 2014 and 2020. The following is a list of the Precinct Changes between 2014 and 2020 which were made manually on the 2020 precinct shapefile before running the rest of the analysis.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

    Precinct changes between 2014 and 2016<\/span><\/p>\n